In national exit polls, Biden wins most voters who went third-party or didn’t vote in 2016. Had Clinton gotten those voters in key states, she might have won four years ago.
One thing that makes this situation pretty hard to analyze is how much we believe in Biden’s lead in Ohio. If Trump wins Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, he’s at about a 50 percent shot to win the Electoral College, per our scenario tester. But if Biden then wins Ohio, Trump chances plummet to 1 percent."
In Ohio, Biden leads by 18 points among absentee votes and by 2 points among in-person votes. So, that sounds really good for Biden, right? Well, maybe, but we may be seeing the early in-person votes reported first, which are likely better for Biden than the ones cast on Election Day.
Trump campaign officials are keeping an eye on R.N.C. data that suggests that the president might be under-performing in urban areas in Minnesota, a state Trump hoped to flip.
With early, in-person tallies coming in from Atlanta, it looks like Biden is doing well in Fulton County. Clinton had 68% of the vote there. Biden is doing 10 points better.
Georgia’s Cobb County has counted about a third of its votes so far — if Biden’s lead comes close to holding, it will cement the suburban shift away from Republicans.
Democrats are stunned to see the Texas suburb of Williamson County go blue in a presidential election. Beto O’Rourke flipped it in his losing challenge to Senator Ted Cruz
In Florida exit polls, 42% said they were better off today than 4 years ago. Only 20% said they were worse off. And 3 out of 4 people in that better-off group went for Trump
One interesting question for the Indiana Gubernatorial race: How many counties will Rainwater capture second place? That is currently happening in Henry County, Indiana.
If this is your first time watching returns, don’t get sucked in by the back and forths. Early voting changes the way any election watcher judges election night. Anything that seems a sure thing now could be totally different tomorrow. Don’t get sucked in by the drama of TV news.
With 80 percent reported, Biden is up 17 points so far in Johnson County, Kansas, a well-off suburban county to the west of Kansas City. Clinton lost it by 3 points in 2016. That would be a positive sign for Biden, since it might imply a strong performance in other Midwestern suburbs — although again, it’s hard to make too much of things unless we know the mix of early vs. Election Day votes and unless our prior reporting said to expect a red shift in Kansas.
With the early vote in, Biden has a lead over Trump in Ohio’s Delaware County, a G.O.P. stronghold. Delaware County is heavily suburban, and no Democrat has won it since 1916.
With 24 percent of the expected vote already reporting in Ohio, per the Associated Press, Biden leads 60 percent to 39 percent … but those are all probably absentee votes, which counties were told to report by 8 p.m. The Election Day vote should trickle in over the next few hours, swinging things back toward Trump.
The national press has not followed the Indiana Governor's race and will look at those results first because it is the first big race to judge... and they are going to lose their minds.
I remember when libertarians were united in hating George W. Bush. And then united in hating Obama. Whatever happened in the last four years was straight-up weird.
Media for the last month: "News outlets will play this differently and not hype it up." Open to the CNN broadcast, Wolf Blitzer screams "WELCOME TO A SUSPENSFUL DRAMA PACKED NIGHT!"
In Montgomery County, IN, more than 50% of registered voters did so before Election Day. Not sure what that portends here, as there aren't many local races that are competitive....which is kinda sad.
Open Thread for Election Day
Watching Bloomberg, said Gabby Giffords was dead and had to correct that
We are either here: “If Trump does win, then it is due to anti-lockdown sentiments being wildly under polled.” (From my predictions)
Or here: https://chrisspangle.substack.com/p/notes-for-october-1-2020
NYT Lisa Lerer, in Orlando, Fla. 5m ago
In national exit polls, Biden wins most voters who went third-party or didn’t vote in 2016. Had Clinton gotten those voters in key states, she might have won four years ago.
lorida currently looks like a bit of an outlier, because Biden is running ahead of Clinton in complete counties nationwide
Here's a plot of the 100+ counties we believe are done counting votes, other than provisional ballots https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1323810668928245761
"NOV. 3, 9:15 PM
One thing that makes this situation pretty hard to analyze is how much we believe in Biden’s lead in Ohio. If Trump wins Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, he’s at about a 50 percent shot to win the Electoral College, per our scenario tester. But if Biden then wins Ohio, Trump chances plummet to 1 percent."
NATE SILVER
NOV. 3, 9:05 PM
In Ohio, Biden leads by 18 points among absentee votes and by 2 points among in-person votes. So, that sounds really good for Biden, right? Well, maybe, but we may be seeing the early in-person votes reported first, which are likely better for Biden than the ones cast on Election Day.
NYT Annie Karni, in Washington 1m ago
Trump campaign officials are keeping an eye on R.N.C. data that suggests that the president might be under-performing in urban areas in Minnesota, a state Trump hoped to flip.
NYT Stephanie Saul, in Atlanta 4m ago
With early, in-person tallies coming in from Atlanta, it looks like Biden is doing well in Fulton County. Clinton had 68% of the vote there. Biden is doing 10 points better.
NYT
Reid Epstein, in Madison, Wis. 24m ago
Georgia’s Cobb County has counted about a third of its votes so far — if Biden’s lead comes close to holding, it will cement the suburban shift away from Republicans.
NYT nnie Karni, in Washington 20m ago
Democrats are stunned to see the Texas suburb of Williamson County go blue in a presidential election. Beto O’Rourke flipped it in his losing challenge to Senator Ted Cruz
NYT Patricia Cohen, in New York 10m ago
In Florida exit polls, 42% said they were better off today than 4 years ago. Only 20% said they were worse off. And 3 out of 4 people in that better-off group went for Trump
One interesting question for the Indiana Gubernatorial race: How many counties will Rainwater capture second place? That is currently happening in Henry County, Indiana.
If this is your first time watching returns, don’t get sucked in by the back and forths. Early voting changes the way any election watcher judges election night. Anything that seems a sure thing now could be totally different tomorrow. Don’t get sucked in by the drama of TV news.
538 NATE SILVER
NOV. 3, 8:37 PM
With 80 percent reported, Biden is up 17 points so far in Johnson County, Kansas, a well-off suburban county to the west of Kansas City. Clinton lost it by 3 points in 2016. That would be a positive sign for Biden, since it might imply a strong performance in other Midwestern suburbs — although again, it’s hard to make too much of things unless we know the mix of early vs. Election Day votes and unless our prior reporting said to expect a red shift in Kansas.
NYT Stephanie Saul, in Atlanta 6m ago
The early exit polling data from Georgia suggests that Trump managed to bring around 10 percent of Black voters into his column.
NYT Elaina Plott
Elaina Plott, in Columbus, Ohio 3m ago
With the early vote in, Biden has a lead over Trump in Ohio’s Delaware County, a G.O.P. stronghold. Delaware County is heavily suburban, and no Democrat has won it since 1916.
At 87.2% reporting, there's 0.46 points between Trump-Biden in FLA. 3rd party combined is 0.77% -- Jorgensen 0.59%, Hawkins 0.13%, De La Fuente 0.05%. - https://twitter.com/mattwelch/status/1323794130292670467?s=21
NYT Alicia Parlapiano, in Washington 7m ago
Officials in Pennsylvania and Michigan say that counting mail ballots — and therefore most results — could take until Nov. 6.
Not good for Trump. Exit polls were taken today when a majority of Republicans vote https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/03/fox-survey-country-wrong-direction-433972
538: NATHANIEL RAKICH
NOV. 3, 8:02 PM
With 24 percent of the expected vote already reporting in Ohio, per the Associated Press, Biden leads 60 percent to 39 percent … but those are all probably absentee votes, which counties were told to report by 8 p.m. The Election Day vote should trickle in over the next few hours, swinging things back toward Trump.
Biden has 29,612 ways to win
90% of paths
173 ties
1% of paths
Trump has 2,983 ways to win
9% of paths
'We’ve got to stop the bleeding': Democrats sound alarm in Miami - https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/29/miami-voter-turnout-democrats-433643
Latino vote in FL is not good for Biden. https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1323783848220524544?s=21
Politico Live Blog https://www.politico.com/live-news-updates/2020/11/03/online-election-coverage-2020-results-polls-reaction-201103
NYT Times Live Updates - https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/03/us/election-day
FiveThiryEight has a good live blog. https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/
Needles are back. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html
Trump overperforming 10% in Broward CO FL
Indiana called for Holcomb. https://www.wthitv.com/content/news/Republican-Holcomb-wins-reelection-as-Indiana-governor-572963691.html
Is calling a election at 7% reported typical?
The national press has not followed the Indiana Governor's race and will look at those results first because it is the first big race to judge... and they are going to lose their minds.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/03/politics/exit-polls-2020/index.html
Cheat sheet - https://whatsontheballot.com/
I remember when libertarians were united in hating George W. Bush. And then united in hating Obama. Whatever happened in the last four years was straight-up weird.
This is a bummer because I love exit polls. They are usually a wealth of great information. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/exit-polls-can-be-misleading-especially-this-year/
Media for the last month: "News outlets will play this differently and not hype it up." Open to the CNN broadcast, Wolf Blitzer screams "WELCOME TO A SUSPENSFUL DRAMA PACKED NIGHT!"
Final Cook House https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/final-house-ratings-democrats-poised-expand-majority-10-15-seats
Final Cook Senate - https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/senate-overview/final-2020-senate-overview-democrats-remain-favorites-take-senate
Final Cook Analysis - https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/bidens-path-270-widens-trumps-path-narrows-texas-moves-toss
Indiana Election Results - https://enr.indianavoters.in.gov/site/index.html
Great video by Spike and co: https://twitter.com/i/status/1323432428858388480
In Montgomery County, IN, more than 50% of registered voters did so before Election Day. Not sure what that portends here, as there aren't many local races that are competitive....which is kinda sad.
With 2 precincts reporting in, Trump currently leads Biden 16 votes to 10 votes.
How them Indiana governor race numbers looking?
Long lines before polls even opened. My prediction is Trump will win Alabama.lol
lol https://youtu.be/X-ZwOfaTMBc
The irony vote is real. It's why Trump is President. It has the power to upend this race. https://twitter.com/BNicholsLiberty/status/1323603870094950411
https://twitter.com/ShaneTHazel/status/1323643041371086849
A good podcast from former POTUS campaign managers. https://www.hacksontap.com/episodes/election-day-survival-guide
"The swing counties and Senate races we'll have our eye on as returns come in." https://sweep.thedispatch.com/p/the-sweep-your-2020-election-night