Why did the initial Russian invasion fail?

Notes for March 7, 2022

Mar 7

(I didn’t learn my lesson. I’ve been posting on social media and not here… And now I am throttled on FB, Twitter, and IG due to “fake news”, which wasn’t? Either way, I am posting here too, almost daily. It’s a mix of my research for shows, videos and podcasts I find interesting, and other stuff you need to know. And memes.)

This was an excellent video outlining some specifics of how the Russian military operates and why they stalled in the first week of the war.

Here are a couple of related articles:

Taiwan Is Not Ukraine: Stop Linking Their Fates Together

Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli

WOTR Podcast: A Big Debate About a Little Nuke

Ukraine Has Accused Russia of Using Thermobaric Weapons. Here’s What Makes Them So Devastating.

Refugees

In Syria, roughly 50% of the country was displaced. There’s no guarantee that half of Ukraine’s 41 million residents would leave the country, or that Russia and the EU/USA (by proxy) will conduct the war similarly here… but 20 million displaced people is mind-boggling to contemplate. Reports on the ground are saying the border checkpoints are seeing a daily increase, and most of the refugees are from the East, meaning Western Ukrainians have not yet, or cannot, reached the Polish border.

The Associated Press @AP

They are among the more than 1.7 million people who have fled Ukraine in what the United Nations calls Europe’s fastest-growing refugee crisis since World War II. The number is up from 1.5 million on Sunday, the U.N. refugee agency said.

War silenced violin for refugee as 1.7M have fled UkraineZAHONY, Hungary (AP) — The violin was so beloved by Myroslava Sherbina it was the one item she took as she fled Ukraine, along with the clothes she wore. But the instrument has remained silent since the start of Russia’s invasion of her country.apnews.com

I was thinking the Polish are great to refugees… Then I saw this from last year. Lukashenko in Belarus offered tourist visas to Middle Eastern refugees only to send them to the EU border after he was sanctioned for stealing an election with Putin’s help.

Poor Kurds, Iraqis, Syrians, etc… get pushed to the Polish border by Belarusian troops only to get pinned by Polish troops. Poland offered to give aid to refugees on the Belarus side due to the brutality of the Belarusian troops, Lukashenko said no. Wikipedia.

Join In

In celebration of our tenth anniversary, we are launching the second episode a week of the Chris Spangle Show, but this one is just for members of WAL Plus! It will air Wednesday nights at 7 pm (Eastern) and is available on Patreon. The best part is that you can participate at the $10 level! We will share the Streamyard link and the first few that log on getting in. This will be a looser show than the one that airs Saturday mornings at 10 am and want it to have a more communal feel. Watch for the link in Patreon, and if you're not a current member of WAL Plus, join here! Celebrate our tenth anniversary by joining at the $10 level!

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Podcasts

Leaders and Legends

Katja Hoyer’s new book, “Blood and Iron: The Rise and Fall of the German Empire”, was published in 2021 with incredibly positive reviews. Her book is just terrific. In this week’s “Leaders and Legends” podcast, Katja details why and how the creation of the German Empire completely changed world history. Given what’s happening in Ukraine a discussion of European history is timely.

Call Me Back

Fred Kagan is a well-known conservative scholar at AEI and military history professor from West Point. He has a B.A. in Soviet and East European studies and a Ph.D. in Russian and Soviet military history, both from Yale University. As you can imagine, a non-interventionist would have many disagreements with him, but this is really interesting and challenging as he lays out the case for American hard power.

Putting on my tin foil hat, what if China is doing to America what was done to the Soviets? A country with an over-bloated debt and too many security commitments can’t survive a war in multiple theatres. So send in Putin and Kim to force America to defend in Europe and Asia.