Why did the initial Russian invasion fail?

Notes for March 7, 2022

(I didn’t learn my lesson. I’ve been posting on social media and not here… And now I am throttled on FB, Twitter, and IG due to “fake news”, which wasn’t? Either way, I am posting here too, almost daily. It’s a mix of my research for shows, videos and podcasts I find interesting, and other stuff you need to know. And memes.)

This was an excellent video outlining some specifics of how the Russian military operates and why they stalled in the first week of the war.

Here are a couple of related articles:

Taiwan Is Not Ukraine: Stop Linking Their Fates Together

Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli

WOTR Podcast: A Big Debate About a Little Nuke

Ukraine Has Accused Russia of Using Thermobaric Weapons. Here’s What Makes Them So Devastating.

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Refugees

In Syria, roughly 50% of the country was displaced. There’s no guarantee that half of Ukraine’s 41 million residents would leave the country, or that Russia and the EU/USA (by proxy) will conduct the war similarly here… but 20 million displaced people is mind-boggling to contemplate. Reports on the ground are saying the border checkpoints are seeing a daily increase, and most of the refugees are from the East, meaning Western Ukrainians have not yet, or cannot, reached the Polish border.

The Associated Press @AP

They are among the more than 1.7 million people who have fled Ukraine in what the United Nations calls Europe’s fastest-growing refugee crisis since World War II. The number is up from 1.5 million on Sunday, the U.N. refugee agency said.

apnews.comWar silenced violin for refugee as 1.7M have fled UkraineZAHONY, Hungary (AP) — The violin was so beloved by Myroslava Sherbina it was the one item she took as she fled Ukraine, along with the clothes she wore. But the instrument has remained silent since the start of Russia’s invasion of her country.

I was thinking the Polish are great to refugees… Then I saw this from last year. Lukashenko in Belarus offered tourist visas to Middle Eastern refugees only to send them to the EU border after he was sanctioned for stealing an election with Putin’s help.

Poor Kurds, Iraqis, Syrians, etc… get pushed to the Polish border by Belarusian troops only to get pinned by Polish troops. Poland offered to give aid to refugees on the Belarus side due to the brutality of the Belarusian troops, Lukashenko said no. Wikipedia.

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Join In

In celebration of our tenth anniversary, we are launching the second episode a week of the Chris Spangle Show, but this one is just for members of WAL Plus! It will air Wednesday nights at 7 pm (Eastern) and is available on Patreon. The best part is that you can participate at the $10 level! We will share the Streamyard link and the first few that log on getting in. This will be a looser show than the one that airs Saturday mornings at 10 am and want it to have a more communal feel. Watch for the link in Patreon, and if you're not a current member of WAL Plus, join here! Celebrate our tenth anniversary by joining at the $10 level!

https://joinwalplus.com/

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Podcasts

Leaders and Legends

Katja Hoyer’s new book, “Blood and Iron: The Rise and Fall of the German Empire”, was published in 2021 with incredibly positive reviews. Her book is just terrific. In this week’s “Leaders and Legends” podcast, Katja details why and how the creation of the German Empire completely changed world history. Given what’s happening in Ukraine a discussion of European history is timely.

Call Me Back

Fred Kagan is a well-known conservative scholar at AEI and military history professor from West Point. He has a B.A. in Soviet and East European studies and a Ph.D. in Russian and Soviet military history, both from Yale University. As you can imagine, a non-interventionist would have many disagreements with him, but this is really interesting and challenging as he lays out the case for American hard power.

Putting on my tin foil hat, what if China is doing to America what was done to the Soviets? A country with an over-bloated debt and too many security commitments can’t survive a war in multiple theatres. So send in Putin and Kim to force America to defend in Europe and Asia.

Warfare

What is the history of NATO, and what purpose does it serve? This was a good explanation.

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Tweets

Chris Spangle @chrisspangle

Our foreign policy is governed by fashion. What’s the thing that will look the best for the current administration? It’s not governed by principles or effective outcomes, but two week news cycles hoping you’ll forget that they promised anything.

The Hill @thehill

Reporter: "Is it really worth doing business with a despot like Nicolás Maduro to drive down gas prices?" Jen Psaki: "Well first I think that's leaping several stages ahead in any process. [...] At this point in time, I don't have anything to predict." https://t.co/7Xa5G638Z9 https://t.co/9ST4XMAu6f

Francisco Marquez Lara @fmarquezlara

Some thoughts for those who follow US- Venezuelan relations closely. I understand the geo-political implications of cutting off Russian oil. But does it makes sense then to take away money from one bloody dictator so you can give it to another ? 1/ https://t.co/NeEPebNBrm

Joshua Goodman @APjoshgoodman

https://t.co/3hI1671egG

The New York Times @nytimes

A bipartisan group in Congress said on Monday that it would move forward with legislation that would ban Russian energy imports and suspend normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus.

nyti.msCongress moves to bar Russian energy imports and end favorable trade relations.A bipartisan group of lawmakers reached an agreement on legislation that, if passed, would bar imports of Russian energy and suspend normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus.

Chris Spangle @chrisspangle

Doing my part

Cecil the flea bag @Jimmywonton2

Did you think your grocery bill was high last week? People are going to start going hungry real quick

Jesse Singal @jessesingal

Haunting piece by @VALERIEinNYT about Ukrainians experiencing "confounding and almost surreal backlash from family members in Russia" who don't believe there is actually a war going on

nytimes.comUkrainians Find That Relatives in Russia Don’t Believe It’s a WarMany Ukrainians are encountering a confounding and frustrating backlash from family members in Russia who have bought into the official Kremlin messaging.

Chris Spangle @chrisspangle

I know the weather is getting nicer so it needs to be said: your dog belongs at home and not inside the restaurant where I’m trying to eat. They’re butt licking flea hotels and I don’t want them near my food.

Stephen L. Miller @redsteeze

Things are Fuckin weird. Biden is letting Russia mediate on a new Iran deal while also not sanctioning Russia oil while also negotiating with Maduro to import more oil when the US didn't recognize Maduro who also negotiated with Putin. This is Joe Biden as President.

Cernovich @Cernovich

How will cutting Russia off and forcing them into a new alliance with India and China (while we start buying oil from Iran and Venezuela) make America stronger?

Kevin Rothrock @KevinRothrock

Police officers in Moscow today are stopping people, demanding to see their phones, READING THEIR MESSAGES, and refusing to release them if they refuse. This from Kommersant journalist Ana Vasilyeva. t.me/Crexcrexcrex/3…

History of Modern Politics Podcast @HistoryModPod

Lord Hastings Lionel Ismay, NATO's first Secretary General, famously said the purpose of the Alliance was “to keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down”.

The New York Times @nytimes

By silencing foreign news reporting, independent outlets and social media, President Vladimir Putin has moved Russia closer to the stultifying orthodoxy of the Soviet Union, experts say.

nyti.msWith New Limits on Media, Putin Closes a Door on Russia’s ‘Openness’The Russian leader is undoing the social freedoms introduced at the end of the Soviet Union, risking a return to total control and ideological isolation.

The New York Times @nytimes

The U.S. has sent 500 additional troops to Europe, a senior Pentagon official said Monday, bringing to more than 15,000 the number of troops the U.S. has sent in the run-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 and since then.

nyti.msPentagon sends 500 additional troops to Europe.The new deployments bring to more than 15,000 the number of troops the Pentagon has sent to Europe in the run-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and since then.

Bryan Hyde @YouCanCallmeBry

I love to learn about history without feeling like I'm attending a struggle session. @CalebFranz tells real stories about real people who shaped history. It's made me appreciate the efforts of previous generations.

Caleb Franz @CalebFranz

She’s one of the most influential women in American history, but few knew her beyond her relationship to her husband. On this week’s episode of Profiles in Liberty, discover how Abigail Adams was the nation’s backbone during its conception. Episode 6 drops this Thursday! https://t.co/FpjgD6qSrb

Justin Amash @justinamash

Imagine looking for alternatives to Russian oil and turning to Saudi Arabia, an authoritarian state that’s brutalizing its neighbor. The people leading our government have no shame and hope you won’t notice the double standards/hypocrisy. End the Yemen war. End the Ukraine war.

Chris Spangle @chrisspangle

For thirty years, we've lived in a unipolar world. It's now multipolar and the bad guys have options, but the foreign policy establishment still thinks in a unipolar way which is pushing a nuclear power towards alignment with another.

zerohedge.comRussian Banks Switch To Chinese Card System As AmEx Joins Visa & MasterCard In Suspending Russian OperationsSeveral Russian banks said on Sunday they would soon start issuing cards using the Chinese UnionPay card operator’s system coupled with Russia’s own Mir network, after Visa and MasterCard said they were suspending operations in Russia.”

Chris Spangle @chrisspangle

I emceed the @LPINorg dinner tonight, and it’s the first time I’ve spoken there in ten years. A lot has changed in that time, like wars ending, wars beginning, pandemics, and ever-growing debt.

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Wordplay

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Memes For Everyone