Trump Can Still Win. How?

Diving Into the Data and Messaging

The conventional and likely correct thinking in the world of political scientists is that Biden is headed for a landslide. This is the consensus map from 270ToWin.com. Almost all of their maps collected from experts show Biden currently over 290.

We will discuss accuracy in polling at a different time, but in the meantime:

Why is Biden winning?

I believe it is due to the central question of 2020: Can you really handle four more years of this? Exhaustion with the President is significant. Former President Obama made this case effectively recently:

While Trump may have the advantage in rallies, the excitement on both sides is taking place at early voting stations. In Austin, Texas, 97% of Travis County is registered. Here locally, the average wait time is 1-3 hours. Some folks in Georgia are waiting 11 hours! The Democrats that sat home for Clinton won’t make the same mistake. It’s a safe bet that 2020 is not 2016, and Trump supporters shouldn’t expect a miracle. It is likely a safe bet everyone is playing it safe with polls and predictions that give a false sense of confidence in a Trump resurgence despite some good signs for him. Overall, I would say the safe bet is for Biden given Trump’s constant self-immolation.

More than 50 million people have already voted. Here's how that compares with past elections.

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Based on an update we'll be releasing later today, we're now projecting total turnout in the presidential race to be 154 million, with an 80th percentile range between 144 million and 165 million. In 2016, turnout was 137 million, by comparison.

But… Trump stopped the bleeding last night.

This was Trump’s best debate and he showed his intelligence. With some discipline, he can be effective. It’s a reminder of how he’s squandered his Presidency through self-indulgence.

Will he be disciplined now and shut up about the Hunter Biden stuff? Like Billy Carter or any other wayward sons or brothers, no one cares and it isn’t effective. This is as thin as the Steele Dossier, and that didn’t matter in 2016.

What is effective? A strong message against “Biden Care” and tax increases.

Bloomberg @business

Biden refers to his health care plan as “the Bidencare proposal.” “Not one single person with private insurance would lose their insurance under my plan,” says Biden #debates2020 trib.al/aO4YxKp

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

The Radical Biden-Harris Agenda is projected to slash the typical American’s income by $6,500 per year. They will raise TAXES by $4 TRILLION DOLLARS – triggering a mass exodus of jobs out of America and into foreign countries.

Then there was this unforced error by Biden that Trump can seize on (and he clearly saw the gift):

Daily Caller @DailyCaller

Joe Biden says he will "transition from the oil industry"

This will really hurt him in Texas and Pennsylvania.

So how can this translate into a Trump win given his map is already very tough?

First, we have to understand the 88 million working-class Americans in this country. Few analysts in this country have identified their love for Trump like Mark Blyth. This new podcast is an essential listen on the 2020 race:

Chris Spangle @chrisspangle

.@MkBlyth is one of the sharpest political analysts working today. Give this a listen:

art19.comEconomics and the Election with Mark BlythBrown University Political Science and Economics professor Mark Blyth joins Major from his home music studio to discuss the upcoming election and why Blyth says, despite what polling shows, President Trump “has got a lot more left than people give him credit for.” Come for a fascinating conversation…

As is this video on why Trump won in 2016.

Let’s say Trump effectively changes his messaging to rally his base and to scare squishy Republicans and Independents back towards him on issues of economics. It is the only issue where he does well, as exemplified in polls on last night’s debate:

In my mind, this is what the map would look like.

Despite not voting R in a Presidential election since 1972, Kanye West made the ballot there. He is on the ballot in Arkansas, Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, and Vermont.

Iowa and Minnesota are in play, and the irony vote could swing it to Trump.

Let’s give Trump both Texas and Pennsylvania due to the oil comments. We will also give him Ohio and Georgia due to his messaging change.

That leaves Florida.

In my mind, this is Trump’s only path to victory. It requires some pretty big miracles for the Trump campaign. First, Trump has to be disciplined and quiet. He can do it. We saw it during the Kavanagh hearings when he barely tweeted for a month.

Secondly, it means a MASSIVE influx of money to deploy this strategy. He has blown a billion dollars. Trump entered this race with a giant war chest. He had spent four years running a general election campaign, and he essentially exhausted his donor base. Big donors no longer are willing to attach their names to him. He hasn’t even contributed to his own campaign. Democrats were worried that Biden would never catch up to this fundraising and digital marketing advantage.

Brad Parscale @parscale

For nearly three years we have been building a juggernaut campaign (Death Star). It is firing on all cylinders. Data, Digital, TV, Political, Surrogates, Coalitions, etc. In a few days we start pressing FIRE for the first time.

He did.

See if this sounds familiar. Due to bad decision-making and incompetence, Trump is broke. It means he may not have the ability to capitalize on this new lane that opened up by talking to the millions of voters in swing states he needs to close the gap. Once again, he has become his own worst enemy.

I am not predicting this as an outcome, but more as an exercise on how Trump can come back.

If I were making a prediction, I would flip Georgia to Biden. It seems far fetched, but 33% of the electorate is under 35. Suburban white women are tipping the scales. A million new voters have registered to vote. One can never underestimate the power of revenge, either. After Kemp’s 1 point victory over Stacy Abrams two years ago, there is a feeling of resentment over voting roll purges and the removal of voting machines.

In Florida’s case, Trump’s loss of elderly voters has been a steep and massive drop off. Republican Voters Against Trump and their Orange Crush project is now getting Bloomberg money.

That makes the map look more like this with 270 being a win: