I’ve been saying for months that Democrats looked like they were about to have their Tea Party moment. In 2010, Republicans gained 63 seats and took control of the U.S. House with a 242–193 majority. It was the largest House swing since 1948. Frustration over the economy helped push independents toward Republicans, 56% to 37%, while stronger conservative turnout helped drive the wave.
The problem for Republicans over the next few years was their inability to govern. For a preview of what could come next in Congress, read Tim Alberta’s *American Carnage*. History offers some pretty good clues for the struggles Democrats will have. It would be unwise for them to think this signals that the country wants to embrace progressive policies. Trump sucks, the economy sucks, and Republicans have an arrogant attitude that none of that is actually a problem to solve, so the voters had to give them an attitude adjustment.
Voters will keep voting for their best chance at affordability until they get it. That’s why Trump won in 2024. People want the economy they had in 2018 again. It is, and always will be, the economy, stupid. We keep having change election after change election because both parties want to appeal to their increasingly radical bases and not to voters’ far more moderate views.
Wave elections have an enormous impact on races down the ballot. In 1974, frustration over Watergate helped bring down several big names in Indiana politics. Bill Hudnut lost to Andy Jacobs Jr. Indianapolis Mayor Richard Lugar lost his U.S. Senate bid to Birch Bayh. Five of Indiana’s seven Republican congressmen lost, leaving Democrats with nine of the state’s eleven U.S. House seats. Six years later, Bayh would fall to Dan Quayle in a Republican wave led by Ronald Reagan.
For all the analysis of individual local races and the impact of property taxes and redistricting, much of it matters less than we think. State and local races are often shaped long before Election Day by how districts were drawn, how ballot access laws were written, and how voters nationwide feel about the president. We saw that play out again in this election.
Going into the election, Indiana Republicans held supermajorities in both chambers of the Statehouse:
- Indiana House: 70–30 Republican
- Indiana Senate: 40–10 Republican
The House supermajority is now gone, with losses by House Speaker Todd Huston, longtime Rep. Bob Behning, Andrew Ireland, and former Colts punter Hunter Smith, among others.
MultiState’s race tracker lists 14 defeated Republican House incumbents:
- Ed Soliday, HD-4, lost to Ryan Kominakis.
- Julie Olthoff, HD-19, lost to Nick Neal.
- Hunter Smith, HD-24, lost to Racheal Bleicher.
- Becky Cash, HD-25, lost to Tiffany Stoner.
- Kyle Pierce, HD-36, lost to Kimberly Townsend.
- Speaker Todd Huston, HD-37, lost to Lauren Cole.
- Danny Lopez, HD-39, lost to Lindsay Gramlich.
- Greg Steuerwald, HD-40, lost to William Colteryahn.
- Dave Hall, HD-62, lost to Amy Huffman Oliver.
- Bob Morris, HD-84, lost to Misti Meehan.
- Chris Jeter, HD-88, lost to Stephanie Yocum.
- Andrew Ireland, HD-90, lost to David Lawrence Boyd.
- Bob Behning, HD-91, lost to Jarren Hurt.
- Julie McGuire, HD-93, lost to Eva Rosberg.
Four Republican-held Senate seats also changed parties, with Democrats defeating two incumbents and winning two open-seat races:
- Sen. Liz Brown, SD-15, lost to Julie McGill.
- Sen. Ron Alting, SD-22, lost to Natasha Baker.
- Trevor De Vries, SD-1, lost to Scott Houldieson in an open-seat race.
- Juanita Albright, SD-31, lost to Kerry Forestal in an open-seat race.
Republicans still hold a supermajority in the Senate.
Most of the state House flips are around Indianapolis, but most of the Senate flips aren’t. Of the 18 called flips, 11 are in central Indiana and seven are elsewhere.
Lastly, it’s surprising and disappointing that the Libertarian Party of Indiana may lose ballot access. If it does, I think it’s partly structural and partly because the party hasn’t given voters a clear, cohesive alternative.
Voting third party is easier when people feel economically secure. When politics starts to feel existential, it can seem like a luxury, and many Libertarians move toward one of the major parties. Most of my Libertarian friends who were active 15 years ago have moved in that direction. Several wanted to send a message to Republicans this year, so they voted for Bayh in protest.
That puts pressure on any third party. But it also makes it more important to give people a reason to stick with it. The LPIN needs a clear idea of what it offers voters and enough organizational strength to put that vision on the ballot.
I enjoy seeing my beliefs represented on the ballot, but the party doesn’t seem to field as many candidates as it used to. Its 30 candidates ran in 28 of the 4,073 races on Indiana’s ballot this year, or about 0.7%. Only nine ran for federal or state office.
What’s the point of ballot access if the party lacks the organizational strength to field an actual alternative?
And building that organization requires some agreement on what the party is trying to accomplish. In a state long dominated by Republican supermajorities, I think the LPIN should be a center-right alternative and a safe haven for Mitch Daniels Republicans. It should embrace a truce on social issues while focusing on fiscal responsibility and government reform. Running center-left is useless when those voters will just vote for the Democrats as a protest vote.
To me, Greg Ballard’s showing supports that argument. His Lincoln Party earned ballot access, and the free-ish market has given voters an alternative they actually want. The LPIN should be asking what it can learn from that.
Pointing this out often leads to “Why don’t you get involved again and change it?” Well, I don’t agree with much of the party’s vision or strategy anymore, and frankly, the culture in the national party sucks.
I sincerely hope the LPIN keeps its ballot access and takes the opportunity to regroup and articulate a clear vision for Indiana, along with a strategy to actually achieve it. I have many dear friends in my former party, and I know how much the fight for liberty means to them. I want to see that work lead somewhere.