Initial Thoughts

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I am not publishing anything big today. I want to see what shakes out where to give you the best information possible on what happened. Hot takes are not what is needed at this moment, nor is rushing to judgment. Everyone chill.

My advice: Avoid declarative statements, gloating, depression, and anything based on results at that moment for your own sanity. This is going to take days or weeks to sort out. The next 48 hours will produce a lot of back and forths on the lead of this race. Concepts like "the red mirage" and "we won't know on Election Day" are still valid even if the national polling was off.

BUT

Here are a couple of things I am thinking about:

• I think if people walk away from this result as a confirmation that Americans are a fan of either side's culture war, they are reading this totally wrong. This is not an endorsement of MAGA-style politics, and it is not an argument for a further-left candidate.

  Bridget Phetasy @BridgetPhetasy

  No matter what happens, this election seems like Americans are trying to strike a balance between repudiating Trumpism and wokeism and boy do I feel that.

• No doubt pollsters misread the anger towards the lockdowns and the inflexibility of polarization. It is a depressing thought that we may not truly know where Americans stand on much until next the Election Day in 2024.

• Americans may have fallen into a parliamentary-style view of politics. 2016 might not have been a rejection of Clinton, but the first sign that national races vote in blocks. This means that persuasion means little and "closing arguments" have no effect.

• It is obvious that the President is going to move on his litigation strategy that we outlined in episode 436. I strongly urge you to listen to these episodes.

• 462: Does Trump Want to Win? An Explainer on Voter Fraud

• 463: The Most Litigated Presidential Election In History

Tweets

Ben Shapiro @benshapiro

No, Trump has not already won the election, and it is deeply irresponsible for him to say he has.

Stephen L. Miller @redsteeze

A razor thin Biden win with zero legislative mandate and a GOP held majority Senate makes everyone mad and I’m totally here for it.

David Menschel @davidminpdx

Huge night for drug policy: OR decriminalized possession of all drugs OR legalized psilocybin therapy DC decriminalized psilocybin NJ legalized marijuana AZ legalized marijuana MT legalized marijuana SD legalized marijuana SD and MS approved medical marijuana

Joe Trippi @JoeTrippi

.@JoeBiden will get the 270 he needs. But the "socialist" attacks worked - while we rolled our eyes. A rejection of elites. And as someone who's read polls for 40 years - its all broken. People don't want to hear it - but we have to come out of our silos and talk to GOP voters

Chris Spangle @chrisspangle

He’s right. The Biden campaign manager said it was far closer than the polls showed and people dismissed it as a GOTV strategy. https://t.co/ABoIOpiM0s

Bradley P. Moss @BradMossEsq

Not for nothing folks, but the Biden campaign was publicly screaming at you for weeks to ignore the polls. They told you their internals weren't showing those crazy margins. This is why so many of us told you your vote mattered.

Lyman Stone 石來民 @lymanstoneky

SO MUCH THIS It is extremely good to recruit anti-Communist dissidents as immigrants.

David Fickling @davidfickling

The strength of the Cuban-American and Vietnamese-American pro-Trump votes is why I think the GOP made a huge tactical error in not throwing the doors wide to Hong Kong migrants this year.

Jonathan Turley @JonathanTurley

We now have hearings scheduled in multiple states, but Pennsylvania remains the most likely to cause a legal pile up. This has the feel of the 2000 election with ad hoc measures, pockets of disputes ballots, and jurisdictional conflicts....

Chris Spangle @chrisspangle

Looking through the county data, @RainwaterForIN won second place in 32 of 92 counties in the Indiana Governor’s race in a historic result. @brianmdoherty @ChrisSikich

indystar.com‘We sent a message’: Donald Rainwater doesn’t win, sets Indiana Libertarian recordHoosiers share why they showed up for Election Day 2020 in Central Indiana on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020. Jenna Watson, Colin Boyle, Vic Ryckaert and Kelly Wilkinson, Indianapolis Star

Chris Spangle @chrisspangle

Lockdowns were a far bigger factor in the 2020 election than polls showed (as of now.) Pollsters never thought to look for it. Rainwater’s historic victory shows his message was what a. What Libertarians should have ran on, and b. How to message it without sounding nuts.

Chris Spangle @chrisspangle

Don’s answer on COVID-19 is the template.

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