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I am not publishing anything big today. I want to see what shakes out where to give you the best information possible on what happened. Hot takes are not what is needed at this moment, nor is rushing to judgment. Everyone chill.
My advice: Avoid declarative statements, gloating, depression, and anything based on results at that moment for your own sanity. This is going to take days or weeks to sort out. The next 48 hours will produce a lot of back and forths on the lead of this race. Concepts like "the red mirage" and "we won't know on Election Day" are still valid even if the national polling was off.
Here are a couple of things I am thinking about:
I think if people walk away from this result as a confirmation that Americans are a fan of either side's culture war, they are reading this totally wrong. This is not an endorsement of MAGA-style politics, and it is not an argument for a further-left candidate.
No doubt pollsters misread the anger towards the lockdowns and the inflexibility of polarization. It is a depressing thought that we may not truly know where Americans stand on much until next the Election Day in 2024.
Americans may have fallen into a parliamentary-style view of politics. 2016 might not have been a rejection of Clinton, but the first sign that national races vote in blocks. This means that persuasion means little and "closing arguments" have no effect.
It is obvious that the President is going to move on his litigation strategy that we outlined in episode 436. I strongly urge you to listen to these episodes.
Bradley P. Moss @BradMossEsqNot for nothing folks, but the Biden campaign was publicly screaming at you for weeks to ignore the polls. They told you their internals weren't showing those crazy margins. This is why so many of us told you your vote mattered.
David Fickling @davidficklingThe strength of the Cuban-American and Vietnamese-American pro-Trump votes is why I think the GOP made a huge tactical error in not throwing the doors wide to Hong Kong migrants this year.