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Notes for 10-26-20
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Notes for 10-26-20

The Keystone Cops of Politics

Chris Spangle
Oct 26, 2020
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Notes for 10-26-20
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I am going to being pay-walling most of these after Election Day, so if you find these emails valuable, please subscribe now. Thank you. Reminder, Patrons to WAL get lifetime access.


The Hunter Biden laptop could be fake. Or it could be real. We may never know.

If you’re looking for one article to cover the multiple angles of the Hunter Biden story, read this one.


Trump Had One Last Story to Sell. The Wall Street Journal Wouldn’t Buy It.

This is an amazing article for many reasons. First, it is written by Ben Smith, the media critic for the Times. He usually hits home runs each Sunday, but this was spectacular.

First, Smith is formerly of Buzzfeed infamy. He published the unverified Steele Dossier. As he explains in the story, the elites were reading it at the time and making decisions based on the information, and he felt the public had a right to read it too.

Secondly, Bannon got cucked by Breitbart, his former publication. Two teams of Trumpworld were shopping the story of Hunter’s laptop. When the Wall Street Journal wouldn’t rush the story (for accuracy), Rudy and Bannon went to the Post. When that took too long, Bobulinski went rogue in the pages of Breitbart. On top of that, the President bragged that the WSJ was going to publish a hit piece, and it pissed off the WSJ newsroom, so they stopped rushing it.

From a PR perspective, they did everything wrong in leaking a story to the press. 1. Don’t insult the press or assume they work for you. 2. Coordination is key for maximum impact. When loose tongues start wagging and put out one piece of the story instead of a controlled, well-framed package, the credibility of the story can be damaged. If they had been patient and kept their trap shut, this story would have had a lot more impact.

The self-owns of Team Trump continue to mount.


Biden is up by two in Texas

Jorgensen is polling at two percent, which is fairly consistent with other polls.

The interesting figure in this poll is that 63% of people intend to vote early. This may show that the massive early voting lines around the country are cannibalizing the day-of vote. This happened in 2016 and led to false confidence in the Clinton campaign. The early vote showed surges for Democrats and they wrongly assumed even more voters would turn up on Election Day. They didn't.

Here in Indianapolis, voters waited nearly 7 hours to vote early on Saturday. There are six early voting stations in a county of one million people. Contrast that with over 100 polling stations on Election Day. Why vote early? Seems like common core math strikes again...


Oracle founder donated $250,000 to Graham PAC in final days of TikTok deal - The Verge

Oracle CEO Larry Ellison donated $250,000 to a super PAC supporting Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-SC) reelection campaign as his company closed in on a coveted position as TikTok’s US technology partner. FEC documents show that Ellison made the $250,000 donation to the Security is Strength PAC on September 14th. The Security is Strength PAC has bought ads exclusively in support of Graham’s political ambitions, including his 2015 presidential campaign and his current reelection bid for the US Senate.

It’s an unusually large donation for Ellison, who also donated $5,200 to Graham’s Majority Fund in January. The timing of the larger donation is also remarkable, coming mere hours after Oracle officially announced that it had been chosen as TikTok’s technology partner for its US operations, beating out Microsoft in a high-profile bidding process to save the popular video app.


Unlike 2016, Trump’s Being Graded as President, Not Candidate

Even so, Trump's overall job approval in that New York Times/Siena poll sat at just 43 percent, with 51 percent disapproving. Among independents, Trump garnered only 43 percent approve to 50 percent disapprove.

Another data point that should conceivably give Trump a boost and has led to a lot of head-scratching among the political commentary industry is the significant percentage of Americans who — despite living through a pandemic and an economic crisis — think things are better for them today than four years ago. In a mid-October NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, 50 percent of Americans said that things were going better for themselves and their families compared to four years ago. In a recent Gallup poll, a whopping 61 percent of Americans said that they are better off than they were three years ago.

Even so, just 44 percent of voters in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll and 43 percent in Gallup polling give Trump positive marks as president.

Why am I focusing so much on Trump's job approval rating? A president's job approval rating is one of the most consistent (and accurate) predictors of electoral performance. Voters who think the president is doing a good job usually vote to re-elect this president. Voters who think that the president is doing a lousy job are almost certain to vote against that person.

In fact, if we look back to 1980, the final Gallup job approval ratings for an incumbent president seeking re-election were within 1-4 points of that president's final vote margin. For example, in 2004, the final Gallup poll showed George W. Bush with a 48 percent job approval rating. Bush won re-election that year with just over 50 percent (50.7 percent). President Obama's final October Gallup poll showed him at 50 percent job approval. He won with 51 percent.

Today, Trump is sitting at a 43 percent approval rating. Even if he picked up 1-3 points on Election Day (as Bush and Obama did), that would get him to just 44-46 percent of the national vote. But, in a race where the third party vote will be half of what it was last time (somewhere between 2-3 points), even if Trump were to hit 46 percent of the national vote as he did in 2016, he would trail Biden by 6 points in the national vote (52-46). He lost the popular vote in 2016 by just two points, 46 to 48 percent.

All three polls show Biden ahead by anywhere from five points (Fox) to 10 points (CNN) lead. The CNN poll and the Quinnipiac surveys also show Trump's job approval in line with his current share of the vote. For example, Trump's 43 percent of the Quinnipiac survey's vote is pretty much in line with the percentage of voters who approve of the job he's doing as president and who have a favorable opinion of him. The Fox poll finds that Trump's job approval rating (at 48 percent) is three points higher than the 45 percent of the vote he's taking against Biden.


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Tweets

Twitter avatar for @RedistrictDave Wasserman @Redistrict
A few days out, the picture of this race is pretty clear: 1) Biden's lead (52%-43%) larger & more stable than Clinton's in '16 2) Far fewer undecided/third party voters than '16 3) District-level polls (which showed big problems for Clinton in '16) back up national/state polls

October 26th 2020

2,174 Retweets13,421 Likes
Twitter avatar for @chrisspangleChris Spangle @chrisspangle
How to track your mail-in ballot
How to track your mail-in ballotIn 44 states and the District of Columbia, voters can keep an eye on where their ballot is through systems that track when a ballot is requested by, sent to and returned by the voter.theconversation.com

October 26th 2020

Twitter avatar for @LukewearechangeLuke Rudkowski @Lukewearechange
Twitter this weekend
Image

October 26th 2020

624 Retweets1,748 Likes
Twitter avatar for @chrisspangleChris Spangle @chrisspangle
The GOP’s Demographic Doom
The GOP’s Demographic DoomMillennials and Gen Z are only a few years away from dominating the electorate.theatlantic.com

October 26th 2020

1 Retweet
Twitter avatar for @chrisspangleChris Spangle @chrisspangle
Why won’t you just come out and say you didn’t beat your wife, Joe?

Rep. Jim Jordan @Jim_Jordan

If Joe Biden isn’t "the Big Guy,” why won’t he say so? https://t.co/rqPKnpLyM2

October 26th 2020

5 Likes
Twitter avatar for @JoeConchaTVJoe Concha @JoeConchaTV
In a related story, the New York Post’s official Twitter account has been locked since Oct. 12... https://t.co/PUiag4kCtR

CNN @CNN

A right-wing offensive is underway to discredit social media companies just days before the election. https://t.co/CSebdA4bMQ

October 25th 2020

3,116 Retweets8,159 Likes
Twitter avatar for @chrisspangleChris Spangle @chrisspangle
My gf was unaware of Borat until we started the first one tonight and she found it totally off putting. I explained how shocking it was 15 years ago. She replied, “Borat is President now. It’s not as funny anymore.” https://t.co/pQ2LrGUI9l

Esquire UK @EsquireUK

At a time when people don't feel the need to hide their hate, Borat's 'gotcha' trick has lost some of its power https://t.co/gHzDkajNP0

October 26th 2020

3 Retweets30 Likes
Twitter avatar for @davidaxelrodDavid Axelrod @davidaxelrod
This @axios story reports on a planned score-settling purge at the FBI, CIA, Pentagon and elsewhere if the @POTUS is re-elected. But when I spoke with @AmbJohnBolton on the #AxeFiles earlier this month, he forecast such a purge even if Trump LOSES.
Trump plans to fire heads of FBI, CIA and Pentagon if he wins re-electionThe list of planned replacements is much longer, but these are Trump’s priorities.axios.com

October 26th 2020

157 Retweets493 Likes
Twitter avatar for @chrisspangleChris Spangle @chrisspangle
This is why I’m always skeptical about “Shy Trump voters”
Image

October 25th 2020

10 Likes
Twitter avatar for @ggreenwaldGlenn Greenwald @ggreenwald
What kind of monstrous political movement speaks ill of tech giant monopolists and Silicon Valley oligarchs, especially *before an election*? Have they no decency? Is nothing sacred anymore?

CNN @CNN

A right-wing offensive is underway to discredit social media companies just days before the election. https://t.co/CSebdA4bMQ

October 25th 2020

831 Retweets4,427 Likes
Twitter avatar for @jimmy_doreJimmy Dore @jimmy_dore
I had many spirited debates about censorship in the TYT studio, I was warning that being pro-censorship will always come back to bite the left even harder. Reminder: No matter how much you hate someone who is speaking, The antidote to bad speech is more speech, not censorship.

Bhaskar Sunkara @sunraysunray

Facebook is now blocking our videos for violating “community standards” that trigger certain key words. Was it the “Marxist,” “Bolivia,” or “Biden”? https://t.co/ZrUGQ9RDQb

October 25th 2020

803 Retweets3,735 Likes
Twitter avatar for @ElectProjectMichael McDonald @ElectProject
#earlyvote morning update 10/25 At least 58 million people have voted in the 2020 general election 🥳
electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
Image

October 25th 2020

191 Retweets927 Likes
Twitter avatar for @thehillThe Hill @thehill
THE MEMO: Five reasons why Trump could upset the odds
hill.cm/uOzGDlx
Image

October 25th 2020

19 Retweets78 Likes
Twitter avatar for @LkatzenbergLauren Katzenberg @Lkatzenberg
A Russian mayor needed someone to run against him to make the local election look legit. So, he forced the woman who cleans city hall to run after everyone else refused, and then...she won.
She Used to Clean City Hall. Now, She Runs It.In Russia, elections are typically theatrical affairs with the winner and loser preordained. Sometimes, though, they go off script.nytimes.com

October 24th 2020

3,111 Retweets12,148 Likes
Twitter avatar for @whignewtonsSarah Isgur @whignewtons
This is how crazy that turnout number would be: In 2016, the Census Bureau reporter 157,596,000 people *registered* to vote. https://t.co/4RbF10CbDK

Echelon Insights @EchelonInsights

The Echelon team is excited to unveil our 2020 turnout🗳 estimate - as well as upgrades to our state and Congressional District estimates, with expected numbers of votes cast by demographic in every state and CD. We expect 157,408,480 votes in 2020. https://t.co/MlHfQ45GDB

October 21st 2020

4 Retweets24 Likes
Twitter avatar for @JonahDispatchJonah Goldberg @JonahDispatch
Jarrett outwits Biden again!

Brandon Friedman @BFriedmanDC

Fox News analyst @GreggJarrett is standing in the street tweeting because he believes Joe Biden is controlling his home wi-fi. Not a joke. https://t.co/27emEMqP7g

October 23rd 2020

32 Retweets355 Likes

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