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Notes for 10-26-20

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Notes for 10-26-20

The Keystone Cops of Politics

Chris Spangle
Oct 26, 2020
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Notes for 10-26-20

www.chrisspangle.com

I am going to being pay-walling most of these after Election Day, so if you find these emails valuable, please subscribe now. Thank you. Reminder, Patrons to WAL get lifetime access.


The Hunter Biden laptop could be fake. Or it could be real. We may never know.

If you’re looking for one article to cover the multiple angles of the Hunter Biden story, read this one.


Trump Had One Last Story to Sell. The Wall Street Journal Wouldn’t Buy It.

This is an amazing article for many reasons. First, it is written by Ben Smith, the media critic for the Times. He usually hits home runs each Sunday, but this was spectacular.

First, Smith is formerly of Buzzfeed infamy. He published the unverified Steele Dossier. As he explains in the story, the elites were reading it at the time and making decisions based on the information, and he felt the public had a right to read it too.

Secondly, Bannon got cucked by Breitbart, his former publication. Two teams of Trumpworld were shopping the story of Hunter’s laptop. When the Wall Street Journal wouldn’t rush the story (for accuracy), Rudy and Bannon went to the Post. When that took too long, Bobulinski went rogue in the pages of Breitbart. On top of that, the President bragged that the WSJ was going to publish a hit piece, and it pissed off the WSJ newsroom, so they stopped rushing it.

From a PR perspective, they did everything wrong in leaking a story to the press. 1. Don’t insult the press or assume they work for you. 2. Coordination is key for maximum impact. When loose tongues start wagging and put out one piece of the story instead of a controlled, well-framed package, the credibility of the story can be damaged. If they had been patient and kept their trap shut, this story would have had a lot more impact.

The self-owns of Team Trump continue to mount.


Biden is up by two in Texas

Jorgensen is polling at two percent, which is fairly consistent with other polls.

The interesting figure in this poll is that 63% of people intend to vote early. This may show that the massive early voting lines around the country are cannibalizing the day-of vote. This happened in 2016 and led to false confidence in the Clinton campaign. The early vote showed surges for Democrats and they wrongly assumed even more voters would turn up on Election Day. They didn't.

Here in Indianapolis, voters waited nearly 7 hours to vote early on Saturday. There are six early voting stations in a county of one million people. Contrast that with over 100 polling stations on Election Day. Why vote early? Seems like common core math strikes again...


Oracle founder donated $250,000 to Graham PAC in final days of TikTok deal - The Verge

Oracle CEO Larry Ellison donated $250,000 to a super PAC supporting Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-SC) reelection campaign as his company closed in on a coveted position as TikTok’s US technology partner. FEC documents show that Ellison made the $250,000 donation to the Security is Strength PAC on September 14th. The Security is Strength PAC has bought ads exclusively in support of Graham’s political ambitions, including his 2015 presidential campaign and his current reelection bid for the US Senate.

It’s an unusually large donation for Ellison, who also donated $5,200 to Graham’s Majority Fund in January. The timing of the larger donation is also remarkable, coming mere hours after Oracle officially announced that it had been chosen as TikTok’s technology partner for its US operations, beating out Microsoft in a high-profile bidding process to save the popular video app.


Unlike 2016, Trump’s Being Graded as President, Not Candidate

Even so, Trump's overall job approval in that New York Times/Siena poll sat at just 43 percent, with 51 percent disapproving. Among independents, Trump garnered only 43 percent approve to 50 percent disapprove.

Another data point that should conceivably give Trump a boost and has led to a lot of head-scratching among the political commentary industry is the significant percentage of Americans who — despite living through a pandemic and an economic crisis — think things are better for them today than four years ago. In a mid-October NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, 50 percent of Americans said that things were going better for themselves and their families compared to four years ago. In a recent Gallup poll, a whopping 61 percent of Americans said that they are better off than they were three years ago.

Even so, just 44 percent of voters in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll and 43 percent in Gallup polling give Trump positive marks as president.

Why am I focusing so much on Trump's job approval rating? A president's job approval rating is one of the most consistent (and accurate) predictors of electoral performance. Voters who think the president is doing a good job usually vote to re-elect this president. Voters who think that the president is doing a lousy job are almost certain to vote against that person.

In fact, if we look back to 1980, the final Gallup job approval ratings for an incumbent president seeking re-election were within 1-4 points of that president's final vote margin. For example, in 2004, the final Gallup poll showed George W. Bush with a 48 percent job approval rating. Bush won re-election that year with just over 50 percent (50.7 percent). President Obama's final October Gallup poll showed him at 50 percent job approval. He won with 51 percent.

Today, Trump is sitting at a 43 percent approval rating. Even if he picked up 1-3 points on Election Day (as Bush and Obama did), that would get him to just 44-46 percent of the national vote. But, in a race where the third party vote will be half of what it was last time (somewhere between 2-3 points), even if Trump were to hit 46 percent of the national vote as he did in 2016, he would trail Biden by 6 points in the national vote (52-46). He lost the popular vote in 2016 by just two points, 46 to 48 percent.

All three polls show Biden ahead by anywhere from five points (Fox) to 10 points (CNN) lead. The CNN poll and the Quinnipiac surveys also show Trump's job approval in line with his current share of the vote. For example, Trump's 43 percent of the Quinnipiac survey's vote is pretty much in line with the percentage of voters who approve of the job he's doing as president and who have a favorable opinion of him. The Fox poll finds that Trump's job approval rating (at 48 percent) is three points higher than the 45 percent of the vote he's taking against Biden.


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Tweets

Twitter avatar for @Redistrict
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
A few days out, the picture of this race is pretty clear: 1) Biden's lead (52%-43%) larger & more stable than Clinton's in '16 2) Far fewer undecided/third party voters than '16 3) District-level polls (which showed big problems for Clinton in '16) back up national/state polls
1:59 AM ∙ Oct 26, 2020
13,421Likes2,174Retweets
Twitter avatar for @chrisspangle
Chris Spangle @chrisspangle
How to track your mail-in ballot
theconversation.comHow to track your mail-in ballotIn 44 states and the District of Columbia, voters can keep an eye on where their ballot is through systems that track when a ballot is requested by, sent to and returned by the voter.
12:08 PM ∙ Oct 26, 2020
Twitter avatar for @Lukewearechange
Luke Rudkowski @Lukewearechange
Twitter this weekend
Image
3:37 AM ∙ Oct 26, 2020
1,748Likes624Retweets
Twitter avatar for @chrisspangle
Chris Spangle @chrisspangle
The GOP’s Demographic Doom
theatlantic.comThe GOP’s Demographic DoomMillennials and Gen Z are only a few years away from dominating the electorate.
1:28 AM ∙ Oct 26, 2020
Twitter avatar for @chrisspangle
Chris Spangle @chrisspangle
Why won’t you just come out and say you didn’t beat your wife, Joe?
Twitter avatar for @Jim_Jordan
Rep. Jim Jordan @Jim_Jordan
If Joe Biden isn’t "the Big Guy,” why won’t he say so? https://t.co/rqPKnpLyM2
12:24 AM ∙ Oct 26, 2020
Twitter avatar for @JoeConchaTV
Joe Concha @JoeConchaTV
In a related story, the New York Post’s official Twitter account has been locked since Oct. 12... https://t.co/PUiag4kCtR
Twitter avatar for @CNN
CNN @CNN
A right-wing offensive is underway to discredit social media companies just days before the election. https://t.co/CSebdA4bMQ
6:48 PM ∙ Oct 25, 2020
8,159Likes3,116Retweets
Twitter avatar for @chrisspangle
Chris Spangle @chrisspangle
My gf was unaware of Borat until we started the first one tonight and she found it totally off putting. I explained how shocking it was 15 years ago. She replied, “Borat is President now. It’s not as funny anymore.” https://t.co/pQ2LrGUI9l
Twitter avatar for @EsquireUK
Esquire UK @EsquireUK
At a time when people don't feel the need to hide their hate, Borat's 'gotcha' trick has lost some of its power https://t.co/gHzDkajNP0
12:22 AM ∙ Oct 26, 2020
30Likes3Retweets
Twitter avatar for @davidaxelrod
David Axelrod @davidaxelrod
This @axios story reports on a planned score-settling purge at the FBI, CIA, Pentagon and elsewhere if the @POTUS is re-elected. But when I spoke with @AmbJohnBolton on the #AxeFiles earlier this month, he forecast such a purge even if Trump LOSES.
axios.comTrump plans to fire heads of FBI, CIA and Pentagon if he wins re-electionThe list of planned replacements is much longer, but these are Trump’s priorities.
12:11 AM ∙ Oct 26, 2020
493Likes157Retweets
Twitter avatar for @chrisspangle
Chris Spangle @chrisspangle
This is why I’m always skeptical about “Shy Trump voters”
Image
10:32 PM ∙ Oct 25, 2020
Twitter avatar for @ggreenwald
Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald
What kind of monstrous political movement speaks ill of tech giant monopolists and Silicon Valley oligarchs, especially *before an election*? Have they no decency? Is nothing sacred anymore?
Twitter avatar for @CNN
CNN @CNN
A right-wing offensive is underway to discredit social media companies just days before the election. https://t.co/CSebdA4bMQ
8:56 PM ∙ Oct 25, 2020
4,427Likes831Retweets
Twitter avatar for @jimmy_dore
Jimmy Dore @jimmy_dore
I had many spirited debates about censorship in the TYT studio, I was warning that being pro-censorship will always come back to bite the left even harder. Reminder: No matter how much you hate someone who is speaking, The antidote to bad speech is more speech, not censorship.
Twitter avatar for @sunraysunray
Bhaskar Sunkara @sunraysunray
Facebook is now blocking our videos for violating “community standards” that trigger certain key words. Was it the “Marxist,” “Bolivia,” or “Biden”? https://t.co/ZrUGQ9RDQb
5:25 PM ∙ Oct 25, 2020
3,735Likes803Retweets
Twitter avatar for @ElectProject
Michael McDonald @ElectProject
#earlyvote morning update 10/25 At least 58 million people have voted in the 2020 general election 🥳 electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
Image
1:54 PM ∙ Oct 25, 2020
927Likes191Retweets
Twitter avatar for @thehill
The Hill @thehill
THE MEMO: Five reasons why Trump could upset the odds hill.cm/uOzGDlx
Image
12:21 PM ∙ Oct 25, 2020
78Likes19Retweets
Twitter avatar for @Lkatzenberg
Lauren Katzenberg @Lkatzenberg
A Russian mayor needed someone to run against him to make the local election look legit. So, he forced the woman who cleans city hall to run after everyone else refused, and then...she won.
nytimes.comShe Used to Clean City Hall. Now, She Runs It.In Russia, elections are typically theatrical affairs with the winner and loser preordained. Sometimes, though, they go off script.
2:18 PM ∙ Oct 24, 2020
12,148Likes3,111Retweets
Twitter avatar for @whignewtons
Sarah Isgur @whignewtons
This is how crazy that turnout number would be: In 2016, the Census Bureau reporter 157,596,000 people *registered* to vote. https://t.co/4RbF10CbDK
Twitter avatar for @EchelonInsights
Echelon Insights @EchelonInsights
The Echelon team is excited to unveil our 2020 turnout🗳 estimate - as well as upgrades to our state and Congressional District estimates, with expected numbers of votes cast by demographic in every state and CD. We expect 157,408,480 votes in 2020. https://t.co/MlHfQ45GDB
9:25 PM ∙ Oct 21, 2020
24Likes4Retweets
Twitter avatar for @JonahDispatch
Jonah Goldberg @JonahDispatch
Jarrett outwits Biden again!
Twitter avatar for @BFriedmanDC
Brandon Friedman @BFriedmanDC
Fox News analyst @GreggJarrett is standing in the street tweeting because he believes Joe Biden is controlling his home wi-fi. Not a joke. https://t.co/27emEMqP7g
7:01 PM ∙ Oct 23, 2020
355Likes32Retweets

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